Brown-Forman mit wenig Wachstum in den letzten neun Monaten bis Ende Januar 2024

Jetzt wird es etwas trocken, aber interessant: Brown-Forman, die Gesellschaft hinter Marken wie Jack Daniel’s, Woodford Reserve oder Glendronach/Benriach/Glenglassaugh, hat ihre Zahlen für die letzten neun Monate des laufenden Geschäftsjahrs bekanntgegeben.

Und die sind durchwachsen: Das Gewinnwachstum ist 1% (organisch gesehen, also unter Herausrechnung von Währungsschwankungen, flach verlaufend). Die Aussichten für 2024 sind ebenfalls sehr gedämpft, mit keinem erwarteten Wachstum der Verkäufe.

Interessant ist, dass die Whiskyverkäufe (und die interessieren uns hier ja) um 2% gesunken sind – was vor allem Jack Daniel’s (-6%) und Jack Daniel’s Honey zu “verdanken” ist – aber die anderen Whiskymarken, darunter auch die schottischen extra erwähnt, haben den Rückggang zum Teil aufgefangen (soll heißen: ohne sie wäre das Minus größer gewesen).

Bei den Märkten haben die klassischen Länder eher ausgelassen, was aber zumeist auf weniger Verkäufe bei Jack Daniel’s zurückzuführen ist. Emerging Markets zeigten sich stark (+9%), auch der Global Travel Retail wuchs um 3% bei den Verkäufen.

Genaueres in der nachfolgenden Pressemitteilung, die wir in Auszügen wiedergeben:

BROWN-FORMAN REPORTS YEAR-TO-DATE FISCAL 2024 RESULTS; UPDATES FULL YEAR OUTLOOK

March 6, 2024, LOUISVILLE, KY — Brown-Forman Corporation (NYSE: BFA, BFB) reported financial results for its third quarter and nine months ended January 31, 2024. Third quarter reported net sales decreased 1%¹ to $1.1 billion (-2% on an organic basis²) compared to the same prior-year period. In the quarter, reported operating income increased 116% to $373 million (+5% on an organic basis) and diluted earnings per share increased 189% to $0.60.

For the first nine months of the fiscal year, the company’s reported net sales increased 1% to $3.2 billion (flat on an organic basis) compared to the same prior-year period. Year-to-date reported operating income increased 25% to $1.0 billion (+2% on an organic basis) and diluted earnings per share increased 32% to $1.58.

Lawson Whiting, Brown-Forman’s President and Chief Executive Officer shared, “In a year with significant uncertainty and complexity in the spirits industry, Brown-Forman has demonstrated continued resilience and agility following two years of double-digit organic net sales growth. As industry trends have normalized, we have expanded our gross margin, executed our strategic priorities, and invested behind the business. As we look to the end of the fiscal year, we remain confident in the strength of our portfolio and our ability to deliver long-term growth.”

Year-to-Date Fiscal 2024 Highlights

• Reported net sales growth in Emerging³ markets and the Travel Retail³ channel was partially offset by declines in Developed International³ markets and the United States.
• From a brand perspective:
  • The recently acquired brands, Gin Mare and Diplomático, drove Rest of Portfolio’s³ reported net sales growth of 79% (+11% organic).
• New Mix delivered very strong reported net sales growth of 34% (+17% organic).

• Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Apple delivered double-digit reported net sales growth of 44% (+45% organic).
• Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey’s reported net sales declined 6% (-5% organic).
• Reported gross profit increased 5% (+6% organic) with strong gross margin expansion of 250 basis points.
• The company increased reported advertising expense by 11% (+7% organic) to support investment behind its brands for long-term sustainable growth.
• The sale of the Finlandia vodka brand was completed on November 1, 2023, generating a pre-tax gain of $90 million.
• The $400 million share repurchase program was completed as of December 31, 2023.

Year-to-Date Fiscal 2024 Brand Results

• The recently acquired brands, Gin Mare and Diplomatico, drove the significant increase in the Rest of Portfolio’s reported net sale growth of 79% (+11% organic) led by the Developed International markets and the United States.
• The Ready-to-Drink³ (RTD) portfolio continued to deliver growth as consumer demand for convenience and flavor remained strong. New Mix’s reported net sales increased 34% (+17% organic) fueled by higher prices and the positive effect of foreign exchange. Reported net sales of Jack Daniel’s RTD/RTP portfolio increased 1% (+1% organic) driven by the continued launch of the Jack Daniel’s & Coca-Cola RTD. This growth was largely offset by lower volumes of Jack Daniel’s & Cola RTD, due to the transition to Jack Daniel’s & Coca-Cola in several markets.
• Reported net sales for the Tequila³ portfolio were flat (-3% organic). el Jimador delivered reported net sales growth of 5% (+4% organic) led by higher prices, particularly in the United States, partially offset by lower volumes in Mexico and the United States. Herradura’s reported net sales declined 7% (-10% organic) due to lower volumes in the United States, partially offset by the positive effect of foreign exchange.
• Lapping strong results in the same prior-year period, reported net sales for Whiskey³ products declined 2% (-1% organic), driven by lower volumes for Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey and Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey. This decline was partially offset by the growth of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Apple and the rest of our whiskey portfolio, including Jack Daniel’s super-premium expressions, Glenglassaugh old and rare cask sales, and Woodford Reserve.

Year-to-Date Fiscal 2024 Market Results

• Emerging markets grew reported net sales 9% (+11% organic) led by very strong growth of New Mix in Mexico and Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Apple in Brazil and Chile.

• The Travel Retail channel sustained growth on an exceptionally high comparison in the same prior- year period, as reported net sales increased 3% (+1% organic) propelled by the super-premium American whiskey portfolio. Woodford Reserve, the launch of Jack Daniel’s American Single Malt, and growth of Jack Daniel’s Single Barrel were the largest contributors of growth in the channel. This growth was partially offset by lower volumes of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey and Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey.
• Reported net sales in the United States decreased 1% (-2% organic), a sequential improvement from the first half results. Lower volumes were partially a result of a net decrease in distributor inventories. This decline was largely offset by higher prices across the portfolio led by Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey and el Jimador, the growth of super-premium Jack Daniel’s expressions such as Jack Daniel’s Sinatra and Jack Daniel’s Single Barrel Rye Barrel Proof, and Diplomático.
• Developed International markets’ reported net sales decreased 2% (-6% organic) primarily due to lower volumes of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey in Japan, following a significant inventory build in the second half of the prior fiscal year. This decrease also included the purchase of inventory from the current distributor as the company prepared for its transition to owned distribution on April 1, 2024. The decline in reported net sales was partially offset by sales growth from our recently acquired brands, Gin Mare and Diplomático, and the continued launch of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Apple in South Korea.

Fiscal 2024 Outlook

The operating environment continues to be challenging following two years of double-digit organic net sales growth. With the evolving global macroeconomic conditions and normalizing industry trends, we are tempering our expectations. Accordingly, we now expect the following in fiscal 2024:

• Organic net sales to be flat, reflecting the slower than anticipated growth for the nine months ended January 31, 2024.
• Based on the above organic net sales growth outlook, and our expectation of gross margin improvement, we anticipate organic operating income growth in the 0% to 2% range.
• We expect our fiscal 2024 effective tax rate to be in the range of approximately 20% to 22%.
• Capital expenditures are now planned to be in the range of $230 to $240 million.